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Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 2:24 pm Post Subject: 11 Feb 2007: No contrails, but are they spraying anyway?
Here is the Contrail Analysis:
CONTRAIL ANALYSIS
Paraparaumu Aerodrome midday 11 Feb 2007
High bypass: Contrail factor = 0.0390 g/kg/K
Contrail layer 1:
Bottom: F352 10967m Wind: 310/ 5kt
Top: F580 17819m Wind: 239/12kt
The bottom of the layer F352 is a bit higher than the usual cruise altitude for domestic flights like Christchurch or Queenstown to Rotorua, so we didn't see any contrails today around central New Zealand.
But if the chemtrail hype is to be believed they are spraying anyway; why wouldn't they? Any opportunity is not to be missed; there's a huge job to be done, especially down here in the southern hemisphere where it's mostly ocean... an even bigger job; every flight has to pull more than it's weight. No one anywhere has made that point yet; you read it here first.
Can you taste it? Do you have a headache? Did you get a shock off your car? Do you feel the malaise and lack of motivation? "Electrically-conductive metallic materials" will do all that, and it's invisible today. That's the insidious thing about the spraying programme. That's if the chemtrail hype is to be believed and taken to the logical extension.
Joined: 15 Jan 2007
Posts: 34
Location: Wellington, NZ
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 2:41 pm Post Subject:
Coming back from Eastbourne today looking at Wellington city I could see behind it 3 massively long contrails which had spread a bit. They seemed well behind the city so I can't actually tell where they were. They had definite start-stop points though.
Joined: 23 Nov 2005
Posts: 999
Location: Wellington NZ
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 7:07 pm Post Subject:
Hector
Quote:
The bottom of the layer F352 is a bit higher than the usual cruise altitude for domestic flights like Christchurch or Queenstown to Rotorua, so we didn't see any contrails today around central New Zealand.
But if the chemtrail hype is to be believed they are spraying anyway; why wouldn't they? Any opportunity is not to be missed; there's a huge job to be done, especially down here in the southern hemisphere where it's mostly ocean... an even bigger job; every flight has to pull more than it's weight. No one anywhere has made that point yet; you read it here first.
Oh well your science says no contrails today so what I saw this afternoon must have been chemtrails then.
I caught the bus into town here in Wellington this afternoon and while we were heading over Mt Victoria I could see long trails to the west over Marlborough stretching right up the west coast.
I couldnt Photograph them when we got into the city as they were behind the hills and out of sight. The spread from them was clearly evident over the city a few hours later though and I got plenty of shots of that.
There was also alot of this type of spraying happening overhead and north of Wellington....
I photographed 4 seperate events like this one today while walking around and there was evidence of many more happening while I wasnt looking, interstingly my partner and I saw that one above happening and we were both startled at the speed that the craft was moving, it was nearly twice as fast as a normal jet appears to move :!: :?:
I did get this trail later in the afternoon
Here is the same trail spreading
and here is a quick look at the sky
I can upload more pics if your still not convinced they were spraying today, after all Hector is an expert and if he says no trails who am I or my camera to argue???
Joined: 23 Nov 2005
Posts: 999
Location: Wellington NZ
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 8:31 pm Post Subject:
From what I saw today they were spraying all afternoon mainly in short broken trails centered over Wellington and a bit north, I couldnt see any of it to the south, and the sky was clear when I got up today, the trails began appearing at about midday and the sky was a mess by 6pm.
I dont think they are/were contrails, or spraying for that matter. I suggest you learn to recognise what is and is not a contrail, a cloud, etc. I think there's a sticky post about that at the top of one of these forum categories. I will concede that if you didn't see the plane, or it forming, then it's a matter of opinion. So that's mine.
Here's another. The while blinky thing's not a contrail either. Maybe you should post it under UFOs.
Joined: 23 Nov 2005
Posts: 999
Location: Wellington NZ
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:43 pm Post Subject:
Hector
Quote:
I suggest you learn to recognise what is and is not a contrail, a cloud, etc.
I gather that you are refering to the second photo above, here are 2 more shots of the same trail...
Anyone can see that it is a trail Hector, those photos have effectively squashed your science and assertions havent they, dont get upset about it buddy. My girlfriend and I saw it just after it had been layed out and then tracked it for an hour whilst sitting at Oriental Bay eating icecreams taking pics every 5 minutes or so as it spread like all the other stuff in the sky.
And as for these ones...
We watched them being sprayed as I already said above.
So there we have it folks, we now know that Hectors scientific data regarding contrail analysis isnt a hard argument or the last word at all. Todays events, some of which Ive posted above prove that.
Joined: 23 Nov 2005
Posts: 999
Location: Wellington NZ
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:56 pm Post Subject:
lukezen
Quote:
Coming back from Eastbourne today looking at Wellington city I could see behind it 3 massively long contrails which had spread a bit. They seemed well behind the city so I can't actually tell where they were. They had definite start-stop points though.
I saw the same thing mate even though Hector is telling me I didnt.
It was far out west, not overhead so what was in the sky above by late afternoon was barely distinguishable from cloud apart from the murky brownish haze these chemtrails make which doesnt always show up in digital shots....
Oh, no! A bust forecast. The shame of it.
OK, I will concede that the track low on the west horizon is a contrail, and possibly the white blinky thing, but it does look a bit suss in the two photos (one of them a blow-up).
I explained before, when I first introduced these analyses, that they were not perfect. There is a problem with measuring the RH at low temperatures, and RH affects the Contrail Critical Temperature and therefore the calculation of the height range contrails are likely to occur. I have attempted to make a correction for it, based on a published study of the problem, in the current incarnation of my analysis program (which, incidentally, is no longer an Excel spreadsheet).
Also the sounding is at Paraparaumu and not over Marlborough where the seen contrail probably was and there may have been a horizontal temperature gradient between the sounding location and the flight track. This will also affect the outcome of the forecast. And we don't actually know the Contrail Constant of the jet engines - we only have an estimate of it for 3 engine types. Aeronautical engine technology may have moved forward since Schrader wrote the paper upon which I rely.
The other thing that affects this particular forecast is that there may well have been a plane cruising by at an altitude above F352. info4 informs us that Flight Explorer doesn't reveal the altitude of the flights it displays. We need to obtain that information some other way, or induce Airways Corporation to release that data to the FE database along with the position, flight identification and time.
Perhaps I should include all these caveats each time I venture a "No Contrails" forecast. Now, you may be thinking, oh, yes, mealy mouthed excuses and a big backdown. Well, think what you like; those are the facts of the matter.
Joined: 05 Nov 2003
Posts: 814
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:48 pm Post Subject:
Hector wrote:
info4 informs us that Flight Explorer doesn't reveal the altitude of the flights it displays. We need to obtain that information some other way, or induce Airways Corporation to release that data to the FE database along with the position, flight identification and time.
Actually, that is not quite correct. For international flights, the New Zealand Flight Explorer data routinely displays altitude. It is not usual at this time for the data to display the flight altitude of domestic flights.
However, we do have extensive evidence of domestic flight altitude data displayed in FE over New Zealand, most probably due to some glitch or accidental activation of the data at the time (and possibly discovered after info4 made his original statement on this). We may publish some screen dumps showing a typical sample at an appropriate time and context.
Further, info4 discussed the matter with Airways Corporation who did convey to him that the domestic altitudes for NZ may be made available within FE at some future time.
Further, info4 discussed the matter with Airways Corporation who did convey to him that the domestic altitudes for NZ may be made available within FE at some future time.
True statement
Quote:
Great to hear you enjoy the NZ Flight data.
Flight Explorer first got the New Zealand data at about the time of 9/11. Consequently a conservative approach was taken to exactly what data would be provided. Sensitive data is filtered too.
That is not the only reason. In some areas in New Zealand the update of cleared flight level is handled differently by controllers - therefore the 'cleared level' would be confusing, and it was decided that the level simply be set to '000'.
You are not alone in asking. It is early days yet, and I can't promise anything, but we are trying to come up with a solution that will keep all parties happy and enable us to 'turn on' the levels.
Actually this is exactly as he wrote in my email to Airways Corp
