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Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 4:16 pm Post Subject: Some questions about clouds for Hector
Hello Hector
Firstly I would like to say it has been good to have a meteorologist in NZ take an interest in Mysterious NZ and give serious consideration to some of the anomalies expressed on this forum.
I have been wondering - if weather modification has been occurring for nearly 40 years, are these factors taken into account when meteorologists train in this field now?
I assume you have been in meteorology for many years and am interested to know if you have observed any change in the patterning of clouds.
Do you for instance, notice that clouds are very angular in shape at times? It seems to me we are seeing more defined lines, square shapes, holes and so on.
Also there seems to be a greater occurrence of rippling clouds, often in different directions. Although, some research of my own on the Internet, talks of this rippling being caused by sound waves coming from aircraft.
Have you looked at Scott Steven’s (a meteorologist in the US) website at length? He has much to say about grids and electromagnetic weather manipulation. He seems to be a bit of a lone voice in the industry.
Thanks for the acknowledgement, Carus. Appreciated.
The miniscule effect that weather modification may have on weather forecasts is ignored, if it is considered at all. For example, it is impossible to know if and where helicopters and other frost fighting measures are being used. I doubt very much if there is any cloud seeding operations in New Zealand, and I have not heard of any to alleviate the drought in Australia. I don't think the few chembusters dotted around are doing very much.
Only a few years of my career were spent at a station where a significant part of the duties were weather observations. From what I recall from those, and my own casual and non systematic observation there hasn't been any change that I have noticed. One thing to realise is that different parts of the country have their own characteristic cloudscapes. For example, a typical Auckland cloudscape looks different from that of Wellington or Christchurch or the West Coast.
You often see ripples and waves in the clouds - in low clouds, middle and high cloud. If you wanted to name the cloud form (that is a field of waves rather than a train of one primary and a few secondary waves) you would use (cloud genus)-undulatus. There are various causes for these including induction from landforms, convection or dynamic instability in the wind flow itself.
They are not a manifestation of sound waves. See this page for the speed of sound in air formula:
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/sound/souspe3.html
s = 20.05 * sqrt( K ) metres per second, where K is the absolute temperature in degrees Kelvin.
At 20C (293K) the speed of sound is 343.2 m/s. At -20C (253K) it is 318.9 m/s.
At a frequency of 50Hz (barely audible; mains power frequency), the wave length of a sound wave at 20C is 6.86 metres and at -20C it is 6.38 metres. An organ pipe 9 metres long will give that tone.
Any sound waves rendered visible by or in cloud would hardly be visible in even low cloud a few kilometres up/away.
Incidentally, the wave length of sound at 10KHz (at 20C) is 3.4cm, smaller than the separation of your ears, which is why you can't find the damn cell phone that keeps ringing. Beep-beep.
Anyway, sound waves are compression waves, not transverse waves (like waves on the sea, and the visible waves in the atmosphere). Compression waves are a series of concentrations and rarefactions - look at how a loudspeaker produces sound. Doof-doof.
Shock waves from bomb blasts, super-sonic flight, etc are different but related and travel at the speed of sound - over 300 m/s (1080 km/h).
Yes, I have seen Scott Stevens’s web site... A few lines from "Hamlet" come to mind.
HAMLET: Do you see yonder cloud that's almost in shape of a camel?
POLONIUS: By th' mass and 'tis--like a camel indeed.
HAMLET: Methinks it is like a weasel.
POLONIUS: It is backed like a weasel.
HAMLET: Or like a whale.
POLONIUS: Very like a whale.
(Perhaps Hamlet is a bit unstable at this time, and Polonius is just agreeing with everything he says so as not to set him off.)
You can find what ever you want in the shapes of clouds. Scott Stevens finds lines, right-angles and other geometry. Of course, from another observation point there would be different angles and shapes. Satellite images? Sure, some natural waves and wave-like forms in the atmosphere align along the wind flow, and others align across the wind flow. Why would you not get right angles in satellite images? If there is horizontal wind shear, then you will get other angles, and contrails will be rotated out of parallel with the flight path of the plane that produced it, and can explain gently curving contrails you sometimes see... but I digress.
I hope this clears a few things up; waves in cloud forms, sound waves, cloud shapes. And why Polonius is such a sycophant.
Yes, that explains some things thanks. However your reference to Shakespeare indicates that you are somewhat dismissive of Scott Stevens. Sure, you would get angles and straight lines at times but what about things like a square looking shape within a dense cloud block which I noticed recently in Auckland?
I want to put some more information on this up for your comment which I will put together in the next day or so.
In April 2005 we observed some very unusual cloud formations above and around our house. I uploaded these photos to the gallery (under Visitor’s Gallery, Unusual Cloud Observations). Here are some examples:
Another member also noticed these holes. There were several that we saw, in both thinly layered cloud and thick cloud. Do you have an explanation for this?
Regarding cloud seeding in NZ, I have found a website (called TWM (Takitimu Weather Modification) http://twm.co.nz/index.html) run by John Porter who offers the following services in weather modification:
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CATEGORIES
Rainfall - generation, dissipation or prevention.
Severe weather - generation, dissipation or prevention.
APPLICATIONS
Disaster prevention or mitigation - drought, flood or storm.
Water supply augmentation - unique bulk water delivery.
Military (Defence) - limited to qualified Indigenous groups | nation states. More info...
OTHER SERVICES - modified weather events for
Weather-dependent businesses eg. aviation, agriculture, fishing, forestry, hydro power, etc.
Outdoor activities and events eg. sporting events, promotions, celebrations, film & TV production, etc.
Emergency situations eg. air pollution dispersal, bush | forest fire suppression, etc.
Very interesting I thought. Apparently it was used during the America’s Cup to influence racing. It is a very comprehensive website, with a lot of information to take in.
Hector said:
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The miniscule effect that weather modification may have on weather forecasts is ignored, if it is considered at all.
TWM says this:
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The benefits to weather-dependent businesses such as agriculture, commodity markets, bulk water supply and hydro power generation are, at least, equal to those presently obtained through weather forecasting. The crucial difference is that TWM is able to produce weather events that were not anticipated by forecasting services and also to reverse or alter events that were already predicted. This does not diminish the valuable role of forecasting. It is intended to highlight the potential advantages and positive contribution that TWM can bring to sustainable development.
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Regarding the issue of legal liability. It is not an issue for TWM. The "technique" is essentially natural and, compared with cloud seeding which injects particles into cloud systems, leaves no physical evidence of human intervention. The only distinctive signature is the timely and congruent nature of a weather event, as demonstrated during the America's Cup projects and New South Wales bushfires. The issue for observers | researchers | lawyers is that of isolating the TWM component from a range of other possible causes. Acquiring tangible proof of a direct link between intent, action and outcome is basically a statistical exercise necessitating TWM input.
A little digging around on TWM’s website revealed a rather eye opening letter written to Helen Clark in 2003.
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ATTENTION: Prime Minister - Rt. Hon Helen Clark,
Tena koe e Helen,
The current power crisis is the end result of actions performed by TWM, a Maori weather modification service and Treaty partner.
Low hydro lake levels is just one of numerous weather disasters that have been engineered over the past decade. The economic cost of that activity is now in the tens of billions of dollars. Consider it as TWM's response to the "Fiscal Envelope" fiasco.
Pakeha politicians and media have constantly threatened a "White backlash" against what they call "special privileges" being granted to Tangata Whenua under the Treaty of Waitangi. Engineered weather-related disasters is TWM's answer to those threats. These will continue until Tino Rangatiratanga is achieved and Tangata Whenua assume full autonomy and independence in Aotearoa NZ. [......]
Some of this weather engineering appears to be closer to home than first thought… So Hector, what do you reckon? Looks like someone out there could have us by the proverbial balls.
I don't have an explanation for those cloud formations. I doubt if the henuapai
temp sounding on that day would reveal anything. If there were more photos showing a sequence of the evolution, perhaps something could be said. I have seen odd looking formations in cirrocumulus and altocumulus (and other types) that are very transient. By the time a camera if found and readied it's gone, or past its best.
Ah, yes. TWM. I recall that used to be 'The Weather Master'. It is very easy to
claim after the fact, "I did that!" The thing is to prove it.
You will easily understand that it is very difficult to determine if an attempt at weather modification has actually
worked. With cloud seeding you can sometimes tell... when you see a cumulus congestus suddenly start convecting out one side with extra vigour, you know a cloud seeder has just flown in to it and dumped a load of iodine, inducing freezing of super-cooled water droplets and releasing the latent heat. The problem is that there is no control part of the experiment; there is no laboratory - the working atmosphere is the lab.
As for claiming responsibility for low lake levels in the South Island, and the circumstances of the famous mast break... I don't think so.
You can imagine how much notice the PM or any section of government took of his extraordinary letter. Zip
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Looks like someone out there could have us by the proverbial balls.
Well, that's what he would like you to think. He has a business to run. If you want to engage his services, Fill yer boots, man.
You can see just how it works in the answer to the first question on the FAQ page you linked. Would you like another Tui with that... (think about the billboards).
Interesting that you have no quick answer to the cloud formations I posted Hector. So would you consider them to be out of the norm so to speak? They did last for a long enough period to observe and photograph them I recall. In fact our son pointed it out first.
With the TWM web site, yes, there isn’t anything to prove that what he’s says, he’s done and it could be a lot of hot air but it seems like a very elaborate way to go about it. Maybe he’s got a lot of time on his hands and a chip on his shoulder regarding Maori claims etc.
Hard to say but it throws another perspective into the mix of weather modification which I found surprising. The implication to me is that there is a lot that goes on behind the scenes that many of us don’t know about, that isn’t in our (and I’m talking general population here) best interests.
Something else that’s caught the interest of several members here in the last few years has been the incidence of hole punch clouds. Azimuth photographed one in Whangarei 24 March 2005.
This website in Australia has some very dramatic examples from people all around the world:
Interesting that you have no quick answer to the cloud formations...
What I said was
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If there were more photos showing a sequence of the evolution, perhaps something could be said.
which is to say that there is not enough information upon which to base an explanation. Ideally, I would want to see a before, several during and an after sequence of photos, or a video (showing some evolution of the form).
Yes, that cloud formation is unusual, but not necessarily unnatural, abnormal or an anomaly (in the sense that 'anomaly' is used on this site).
When we look at cloud formations for pattern and form we are looking from an unusual angle - from below. Remember that clouds develop in 3 dimensions, even though the cloud form may be in a thin layer. Our visual equipment and image processing systems are tuned by millions of years of evolution to recognise and interpret patterns and anomalies in patterns when viewed from above or horizontally. Are there obstructions on the ground? in the forest? where is the predator? locate and track the prey/quarry, find the fruit, berries, nuts.
Photographing cloud forms (in the absence of helpful lighting) immediately flattens it to two dimensions, removing what little depth information our binocular vision equipment may have provided. I am thinking about building a cloud form viewing device which will effectively separate the viewing point of the operators eyes by a metre or more (like an artillery range finder)... then attach dual cameras... and a viewer for the resulting stereo pairs...
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... throws another perspective into the mix of weather modification ...
I don't think that the activities discussed on TWM have anything to do with actual weather modification.
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... there is a lot that goes on behind the scenes ...
And I don't think there is anything going on with conscious, intentional and deliberate weather modification anywhere, apart form a bit of cloud seeding and frost fighting.
Hole Punch Clouds: there is a 2 page topic on that, including discussion of the one Azimuth photographed in Whangarei 24 March 2005.
It is at https://www.mysteriousnewzealand.co.nz/forums/viewtopic.php?t=184
and my contribution is near the bottom of the second page of the topic index. So ...
Hector, your replies give me some of the science but you don’t seem prepared to go beyond the norm - or do you know these things with absolute certainty from your own sources?
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And I don't think there is anything going on with conscious, intentional and deliberate weather modification anywhere, apart form a bit of cloud seeding and frost fighting.
When you say anywhere, I assume you mean the whole world. There is so much information and accounts of people’s personal experience to suggest that there are some very unusual things going on that aren’t normal – do you think they’re all deluded?
I was interested to see that there is another record of more people seeing the holes that I discussed at the beginning of this thread, on 4 April 2005 in Auckland on http://www.metvuw.com/index-20050419.php. Interesting also that they seemed to hang around for a couple of hours.
The finishing comment gives a link to another site to give some explanation of how these holes appear but it's only information about hole punch clouds.
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Thanks once again to everyone who submitted photographs. We have just received an email pointing to the following site which speculates on the reasons for such holes in the clouds. The site is here (http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap040112.html). Thanks to Ian Cooper of Fielding for bringing this page to our attention.
There doesn’t seem to be too much idea at this time about how these holes occur and your replies suggest that there is no definitive answer in the meteorology textbooks at this time either.
There were some good questions at the end of the thread on hole punch clouds, that you referenced, by John that are still relevant:
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So the only remaining mysteries are:
1/ What is the something that triggers the Hole Punch and
2/ Why is it a relatively recent phenomena (last six years or so)...
There have been a number of explanations of hole punch clouds. In particular, the one I gave in https://www.mysteriousnewzealand.co.nz/forums/viewtopic.php?t=184 and the one in http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap040112.html are fairly similar. I had not seen the NASA page when I wrote mine (you will have to take my word for that) so they are independent and say much the same thing. So that's the explanation. That's all the 'science' there is. What do you want? A worked example like: Suppose we have a layer of altocumulus at 400hPa at an ambient temperature of so-and-so degrees C ... and so on? How much more convincing would that be than the qualitative explanations you already have?
And what does
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... beyond the norm ...
mean? Sorry - maybe I'm a bit dense today.
Look, I expressed an opinion about weather modification. If you can present a definitive instance, then let's have a look at it. It would have to be something like some dude saying, "Hey, I've got a couple of million terajoules of energy going begging here... I think I'll start up a thunderstorm, and maybe a tornado or two, and steer the whole thing over there, by that town. Watch this, now." And a couple of hours later that's what happens. This would have to be on a day and at a place where thunderstorms were not forecast; that is a forecast of "No thunderstorms". Now, to be clear, I don't want to see a photo of a hurricane eye with a "beam" apparently coming down from the upper right, or up from the lower left. That would prove nothing.
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There doesn’t seem to be too much idea at this time about how these holes occur...
You have already read at least two independent explanations that essentially say the same thing. It seems to me at least two people have a pretty good idea about how they occur. One is from NASA, the guys who brought you the Apollo Space Programme, Voyager and ISS, etc. And no, I am not asking for equal billing; I'm just a local boy with too much time on his hands, and possibly no life.
There have already been suggestions for the something that triggers the holes - carbon soot from planes, smoke particles, other particulate pollutants. It may not be a recent phenomenon. It may have only been noticed and publicised recently. If it actually is a recent thing, then the reason it likely to be related to the occurrence of whatever the trigger or seed substance is. How hard is this to think through? ... or am I missing something?
Are they (hole-punch clouds) causing any symptoms? Nausea, upper respiratory congestion, conjunctivitis, premature bruising of Camellia flowers, imagined thoughts of paranoia? No, I didn't think so. (Don't get offended, anyone - it's a little bit of a wind-up, OK.)
It (the hole-punch) is a cloud thing; it's about the very curious (but not mysterious) physical properties of the water substance. End of story. If you see one, sure, take a photo and put it up for us all to admire. Nothing wrong with that. Fill yer boots, mon. Same goes for jet exhaust condensation.
About clouds: no two are the exactly same; there is infinite variety. At the same time there are relatively few (less than 50 perhaps?) recognisable forms that we can name, classify, encode in weather reports, and so on. That must mean that cloud shapes are not entirely random; there are pysical and dynamical processes that result in the recognisable cloud forms we see and recognise. Some of these processes are well understood and some are not so well understood - the research continues as we push back the frontiers of knowledge ... so that we can at last master the magnificent forces of nature and inflict terrible devastation... oops, where did that come from? No, relax, it's another wind-up. Chill, mon.
