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Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:40 am Post Subject: “THE MISSING THUNDERSTORM”
“THE MISSING THUNDERSTORM”
The weather is probably one of the most spoken about subjects around the country in one form or another. Holy moley it’s virtually the standard New Zealand conversation initiator, “Gidday, whadoyah think the weathers gunna do”, “Jeeze, yah recon it’s gunna rain tiday”
When the forecast weather does not arrive, it’s usually “Those useless beggars can never get it right and they’ve got a better than 50/50 chance of faking it”
Beating up (metaphorically speaking) the weather people appears to be a national pass time, I have been guilty of this myself, of that I can not deny.
Weather forecasting is hardly an exact science. Here is the definition of weather forecast:
Quote:
weather forecast—An assessment of the future state of the atmosphere with respect to precipitation, clouds, winds, and temperature. Such assessments are usually made by government or private meteorologists, often using numerical simulations. Such simulations are the result of representing the atmosphere mathematically as a fluid in motion. See also numerical weather prediction
After a bit of digging around I was pleasantly surprised to learn that our weather forecasters actually get it right more often than not.
Here is an excerpt from the NIWA web site.
Quote:
It has long been the case that weather forecasters have needed very thick skin if they did not want public comments about their predictions to affect them personally. Forecasters have often felt that people just don’t appreciate the complex technology and expertise that goes into weather forecasting. Much of the lack of understanding probably stems from the need to present forecasts to the public simply and clearly (which is as it should be).
This step of simplifying the language masks any underlying scientific advances in meteorology. So, it might surprise critics to learn that a five-day forecast in 2003 is as good as a one-day forecast was in 1953. This has been made possible through the development of reliable and accurate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. NWP models probably rank among the great scientific achievements of the last century, on a par with the discovery of DNA and advances in understanding of atomic structure.
I read somewhere recently that the New Zealand weather forecast success rate was about 80% and comparable if not better than other countries. Unfortunately I can not locate the article but if and when I do I will post it.
Incidentally I was having an informal chat via email with the MetService Weather Ambassador about other matters so I popped a few questions to him regarding the alleged “Missing Thunderstorms” in the Auckland region.
In response he stated that the forecasts for Thunderstorms in Auckland over the past week were included in the forecast simply because they existed. That they could be seen on radar, mostly out west, but were few and far between.
He said that a few thunderstorms did pop up elsewhere, but not many ...one even dropped a waterspout into the Hauraki Gulf on Friday Afternoon (as shown on TV3 news).
He thought that people were expecting a repeat of the frontal zone thunderstorms that occurred on Good Friday. He mentioned that this situation was completely different in that there was a cold pool generating thunderstorms stuck in the Tasman Sea, just west of us.
He went onto say that it (the cold pool) stayed all week, slowly fading but still generating, and not producing much at all over Auckland.
He finally added that they (MetService) could not remove the thunderstorm warnings from the forecasts until the cold pool finally melted away which happened Friday night.
(Permission given to post these comments)
I took a wee peek at the Weather New Zealand chat site and surprisingly there is a nine page thread by excited weather chasers complete with photos devoted to the thunderstorms of the last week.
Of course this does not negate the possibility that our weather here is being manipulated or somehow affected by HAARP EMF experimentations in the ionosphere as is evident in the USA.
